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WL! The use of ‘extremely hot’ climate models has come under attack

You wouldn’t believe it – or in fact: you probably do – but new research shows that many climate models overestimate global warming. Model makers realize this themselves, but that doesn’t stop “climate forecasters” from blindly adopting them and then saying we’re all going to die.

Science.org – one of the largest science websites in the world – message That there is a significant error in the models used to predict “warming”. The site is based on researchers for the United Nations† These experts say model makers know they are completely irrational. But the “climatologists” who dominate the debate still use it to scare everyone.

Scientists say the problem with that is not only that this is completely wrong, but also that it will eventually cause the climate movement to lose all credibility.

John

realism

A group of climate scientists argue in a comment that scientists need to be more picky about using the model’s results in nature has been published. Researchers no longer have to use the average of all climate model projections, which could lead to global temperatures rising about 2,100 to 0.7 degrees Celsius more than the IPCC estimate.

“We need to take a slightly different approach,” said Zeke Hausfather, head of climate research at payment services company Stripe and lead author of the comment. “We need to move away from the naive idea of ​​a model democracy.” Instead, he and colleagues discuss a meritocratic model, sometimes prioritizing results from models known for more realistic rates of warming.

In other words: we should not pretend that the “average” of all predictions will be true. No, we should look at any of the models realistic – It must be taken seriously.

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Again: yo.

too hot

The problem of overheated models arose in 2019 from the Dual Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which brings together global modeling results by large companies. IPCC Reports They appear every 7 or 8 years. In previous CMIP rounds, most models projected “climate sensitivity” – the expected warming when atmospheric carbon dioxide doubles in pre-industrial times – between 2°C and 4.5°C. Sensitivities over 5°C – a huge variance, says science.

And yes, this is a problem. Because these models are not only used to frighten people, but also to push policies that cost billions and billions of euros. for each country† You are talking all over the world about numbers that we can’t even express in ordinary language; The amounts are so high that you can hardly imagine anything.

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we will. oh dear. Who would have thought that? Maybe we’ll see that the debate gets heated up and they finally come to the conclusion that…it’s all not so bad after all. is not it?