Reproduction rate to its lowest level in almost a month

The reproduction number, which indicates how quickly the coronavirus is spreading, has fallen to its lowest level in nearly a month in recent days.

This indicates that the virus is finding it increasingly difficult to infect new people. This is also proportional to the slowly decreasing number of positive tests.

The number is determined twice a week, based on the situation about two weeks ago. The newer numbers are not reliable enough yet. The reproduction number is now at 0.97 which is close to the 2nd of September. On August 31 and September 1, the number was calculated at 0.96, the lowest level since August 4.

Will the epidemic die?

A reproduction number of 0.96 means that 100 people infected with the coronavirus infect an average of 96 more people. They, in turn, infect 92 people, and then transmit the virus to about 88 people. With each step, the group of new carriers gets a little smaller. The lower the number, the faster the number of infections decreases, until the epidemic dies. If the number is just above 1, the number of new cases rises exponentially.

Since August, the number has been formed around 1

The reproduction number rose in late June. In about two weeks, it rose from 0.8 to just under 3, an all-time high. This coincided with the beginning of the fourth wave. At the beginning of July, the number fell just as fast. Two weeks after the top, it was at 0.7, the lowest level in more than a year. Then I crawled back up. At the beginning of August, the number was just over 1 and has been there ever since.