Social benefits and civil servant wages will rise 2 percent in early 2022, when the pivotal indicator will be exceeded in December. This is what the Planning Office expects. The pivot index was last surpassed in August.
When that happens, social benefits are indexed at 2 percent the following month, with government employee wages following a month later. Due to persistently high inflation, the Planning Office expects the pivotal indicator to be exceeded again this month. A month ago, it was expected that this would not happen until January 2022.
Until recently, the Planning Office believed there would be no more overruns in 2022, but it now assumes that the pivotal indicator will be overtaken again in August. If these forecasts come true, it means that social benefits and government employee wages will be indexed for the third time in 13 months, respectively, in September and October.
The Planning Office expects inflation, which reached 5.64 percent in November at its highest level since July 2008, to remain above 5 percent until March of next year. Average annual inflation is expected to be 2.4% this year and 3.8% in 2022.
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