By 2020, when the world will be under the spell of the corona virus, all focus will be on vaccines by 2021. It is surprising that countries that excelled in controlling the epidemic by 2020 are now failing in their vaccination program. This can have very unintended economic consequences.
2020: Asia and Oceania year
Last year, many Americans and Europeans looked with envy at the situation in countries such as China, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand. Especially the last three are global examples of how to control an epidemic in a non-dictatorial way. While Western Europeans were shivering in solitude in the cold, the situation became even more painful when it became clear that those countries could celebrate Christmas and New Year as a family. The difference with our antibodies cannot be too much. But Christmas 2021 will be very different.
Leaders in 2021: The United States, the United Kingdom and Israel split
At Business AM, we are not the only ones pointing out that many reference countries have handled the vaccine list much better than Belgium and many European countries. The United Kingdom, the United States and Israel have successfully completed this task as a form of military exercise with a deadline and goals.
Peloton in 2021: Belgium and Europe are eligible for medium drivers
Projects in Europe started after a while, but are now starting to reach the pace of travel. We are still behind the front runners, but surprisingly, the European nations are in the title of chasing Peloton. They perform better than any other continent, Asia and Oceania.
Bus in 2021: Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand
In cycling, there are those who ride the bus, they take it a little easier, and still want to arrive on time. You can safely say that the 3 stars of 2020 are located here. The vaccination rate in those 3 countries is significantly lower and disappointing.
If you can dine comfortably on the terrace, the need for vaccination is suddenly far away. Here in Europe we are getting excited about the vaccination rate, with every self-respecting newspaper and website spending at least 70% of its news on the Holy Trinity: Corona, Vaccines and Locking, which was common to many Asians and Oceanians. Their bed show, Of course The last months.
The world is upside down
However, there is a risk that this recession will grow them in the fall, when – if all goes according to plan – the economies of the US and Europe will reopen.
We end up in a very strange situation where the most affected countries cannot travel to the less vulnerable countries, not because they are not vaccinated, but because the population of those countries is not immune. Thus the front runners become the back runners.
Implications for the World Economy
However, first-quarter figures show nothing wrong. Recovery is very powerful on the other side of the world. In March 2021, the Chinese produced 18.5% more than in March 2020, albeit at a lower point. However, several factors suggest that the fall of 2021 will be somewhat Becomes more complicated To countries coming from Asia and Oceania.
Some countries rely too much on this International Tourism. For example, New Zealand is almost 20% dependent on tourism. You can not imagine that the country can be opened without vaccinating the whole country.
The fact that globalization and international world trade have changed and that has arisen among many companies will gradually make itself felt. This is not just a consumer demand to buy local products – Called the short chain – But it also makes economic sense when you consider how shipping rates have exploded and wages have increased in Asia.
Also, speculators underestimate The importance of human communication. If this situation continues, if it is really impossible to visit factories in China or other countries in Asia, this trend ‘Restoration‘- It brings production to your own country – only to strengthen. With Chinese President Xi’s standard drum roll – It goes to a new Cold War – We may be surprised when the West starts to do that in the fall.
Footnote: The author is a partner in a company that has decided to start production in Europe away from China because it is almost impossible to enter the country, so quality control cannot be guaranteed.
Author Xavier Verrell Active in the field of ‘Internet of Things’. His first book will be published soon Human Park From.