Opinion polls predict a shift to the right in the European elections outside

Far-right parties in France, Italy, Poland, the Netherlands and Austria, among others, end up at the top of the electoral model developed by the European Council on Foreign Relations. For example, like-minded parties in Germany, Spain and Sweden score almost identical results.

ECFR researchers predict that due to the rise of far-right parties, the Christian Democrats, Social Democrats and Liberals will not be able to secure a majority in the EU Parliament. Currently, the European Commission usually still relies on these three middle factions, which also include MEPs from CD&V, Voruit, Open VLD, Groen and N-VA. They support more European cooperation. They also broadly agree on support for Ukraine, on further EU enlargement, and even on climate policy, although this is a bit difficult for many Christian Democrats and some liberals.

Researchers at the European Council on Foreign Relations believe that the latter may constitute a new right-wing majority in the new European Parliament with a significantly increased right-wing. Even if this happens intermittently, it would constitute a historic break with the decades-long pro-European centrist path.