Written by Wanjohi Kapugoro | News agency
Mombasa, Kenya – Heavy rainfall is expected to intensify in Southeast Africa and a hurricane is likely to change due to climate change, according to a new analysis released Monday by the International Panel of Meteorologists.
A number of tropical storms that hit Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique earlier this year were analyzed by the World Meteorological Organization, which found that the storms were intensified by rising global temperatures. In just six weeks between January and March, the region was hit by three tropical cyclones and two tropical storms. Heavy rains, storms and floods have killed more than 230 people and displaced hundreds of thousands in the region.
With the hurricane season coming to an end in May, countries are still at risk of catastrophic weather this year.
A team of meteorologists used established, peer-reviewed methods, including meteorological observations and computer simulations, to sample models using pre-industrial and current global temperatures – about 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit). The difference between the models determines man-made global warming.
Sarah Kiok, co-author and co-author of the study with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Agency, said they had seen the impact of climate change using 34 forecast models, but it was difficult to understand the full impact of increased greenhouse gas emissions as data gaps increased. Results.
“While our analysis makes it clear that climate change has caused the most damage to storms, the ability to accurately determine how far they are prevented by the lack of random data and weather observations,” Drs. Kiok “This will help improve the forecast of extreme weather events and their impact.”
In both Madagascar and Malawi, the study was limited due to the lack of meteorological stations with relevant data. Of the 23 meteorological stations in the affected areas of Mozambique, only four had complete data prior to 1981.
“Scientific resources need to be strengthened in Africa and other parts of the world to better understand the extreme weather events caused by climate change, to better prepare people at risk, and to build the infrastructure to deal with them.” Esiden Pinto, Climate Systems Analyst at the University of Cape Town.
The 33-page survey was conducted by 22 researchers, including scientists from universities and meteorological centers in Madagascar, Mozambique, France, the Netherlands, New Zealand, South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States.
The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage is supported by a number of private charities. Read more about AP’s Climate Initiative here. AP is solely responsible for all content.
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